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Western Investors Set to Return to India, EMEs as Expert Predicts 'Multiple Recessions' in US, EU_我的网站

一 |     India and emerging market economies (EMEs) will gain “substantially,” reckoned experts, as Japan-based Nomura Holdings predicts “multiple recessions” for the world’s major economies over the next 12 months.,Nomura Holdings on Monday noted that the US, Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada will fall into recession amid tightening government policies and rising living costs.,“A recession in developed countries can result in heightened interest of Foreign Portfolio Investors towards emerging markets, including India, which is the fastest-growing major economy in the world”, Pranav Haldea, managing director of Prime Database, told Sputnik.,Haldea blames the US Fed rate hike aimed at controlling the rising living costs for the current capital outflow from emerging markets, saying interest rates in the US have a huge bearing on FPI flows.,Foreign investors dumped Indian shares worth $6.4 billion in June — the highest net outflow in over two years. Foreign investors withdrew $27.9 billion from Indian equities in the first six months of 2022.,“Once the current rate hike cycle shows signs of abating, FPIs shall again look at emerging markets with renewed interest”, Haldea reckoned.,Economists observe Fed missteps such as the delayed response to inflation, which the latter labeled “transitory” until March this year, hamper economic activity in the US. The US recorded 8.6 percent inflation in May, the highest in four decades.,Massive inflationary pressure is also hindering growth in European economies such as Germany, Spain, and France, which registered 7.6, 10, and 5.2 percent price rises in May, respectively. Inflation in the UK is running at 9.1 percent.,US Unlikely to Avoid Severe Recession if Fed Hikes Interest Rates Too Quickly to Cool Inflation2 July, 02:42 GMT,Economists warn of spreading high inflation beyond commodities to services items, rentals, and wages.,Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Toh Si Ying wrote in a research note that there are increasing signs that the world economy is entering a “synchronized growth slowdown, meaning countries can no longer rely on a rebound in exports for growth”.,Professor Manoj Pant, a prominent economist and vice chancellor at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, said that emerging markets would also be affected by a decline in trade; still, some factors may lessen the impact.,“The factors which are operating in our favor are that the bulk of the buying consumers are located in India, and the current geopolitical situation means a lot of countries are looking at India not as a complete replacement, but as a possible third area apart from China and Vietnam”, Pant told Sputnik.,Nomura forecasts a prolonged recession in the United States and a much deeper slump in Europe if Russia entirely cuts off gas to the region.,Despite the global headwinds, the Indian economy is predicted to grow at 7.2 percent in the current fiscal, much higher than any other major global economy.,Experts advise Indian policymakers to capitalize on the structural changes that began in 2016-17 onwards but that were interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.,“The world is moving much more towards services than manufacturing. China’s boom was based on manufacturing, the services boom will have to be in India. So the question is how well we are able to take account of that. So depending on us, we can actually gain substantially, if we are ready”, Pant added.,However, Pant labeled the new forecast as a continuation of the 2019 recessions, as there has been no boom registered anywhere in the world since then.,China infuses immense hopes to all the developing economies, as economists bet on demand from the world's second-largest economy to mitigate negative impacts, even though they face slowing export demand from the US and Europe.。    

    A view of the high-grade highway from Lhasa to Nyingchi in Southwest China's Xizang Autonomous Region Photo: VCG
Chinese experts on Sunday slammed India's latest move of identifying 27 locations in China's Zangnan area by their so-called standard names on its official map as self-deception, which runs counter to the improving momentum in bilateral relations and could complicate efforts to properly handle border issues. 
The Indian government on Friday said the updated Survey of India map included "four mountain passes and a high-altitude lake," and claimed that the move "is intended to ensure the correct identification of these places" and "improve public awareness of their geographical and historical significance," according to the Times of India.
The claim came shortly after the 36th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on China-India Border Affairs (WMCC) was held on August 6 in New Delhi.
During the meeting, officials from both sides discussed issues including boundary delimitation, border management and control, mechanism building, and cross-border cooperation. They agreed to maintain communication through diplomatic and military channels and jointly safeguard peace and stability in the border areas, according to a statement released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Friday.
China has been carrying out standardization of geographical names in the region for a long time. At a time when China-India relations are showing signs of improvement and leaders from both countries are expected to engage through multilateral platforms, any unilateral action by India that escalates the border situation shows no point and will not serve the broader interests of bilateral relations, Qian Feng, director of the Research Department at Tsinghua University's National Strategy Institute, told the Global Times on Sunday.
Qian said India should avoid turning border issue into a larger dispute, as such actions could stifle the improving political ties between the two countries.
Consistent position
China's position on the Zangnan region is consistent. The area covers parts of Nyingchi and Shannan and is located in Southwest China's Xizang region, which has been China's territory since ancient times.
Since 2017, China's Ministry of Civil Affairs has released six batches of standardized names for locations in Zangnan, with a total of 112 names announced as of April 2026. These names cover villages, mountain passes, rivers and peaks, accompanied by standardized Chinese and Tibetan names as well as geographic coordinates.
The dispute over the region has a long historical background. The illegal "McMahon Line" drawn between China and India during the 1914 Simla Convention was never signed or recognized by successive Chinese governments and therefore has no legal validity.
After China's Ministry of Civil Affairs published the sixth batch of names that should be used for places in Zangnan region on April 10, two days later, the spokesperson for India's Ministry of External Affairs expressed rejection to China assigning names to places in so-called "Arunachal Pradesh," adding that these actions detract from ongoing efforts to stabilize bilateral ties. 
Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said at a routine press briefing on April 14 that Zangnan region is China's territory. China does not recognize the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh" illegally set up by India. It is fully within China's sovereign rights for the Chinese government to issue standard names for some of the places in Zangnan. 
China-India relations are generally stable at the moment. China's commitment to improving and growing China-India relations has not changed. We hope the two sides will work in the same direction and act more in ways conducive to bilateral relations, Guo stressed. 
India's latest naming of 27 locations is a unilateral administrative move and does not alter the legal status of the area, Guo Xuetang, a professor at the center for South Asia and Indian Ocean Studies under Shanghai International Studies University, told the Global Times.
According to Guo Xuetang, India's move is an attempt to strengthen its claim of control over the area and create additional leverage in future boundary negotiations. However, such actions have no practical meaning and will only undermine the atmosphere for negotiations between the two countries.
Not merely from the perspective of international law, Zangnan region has culturally, religiously and historically been connected within Xizang, with close links between local communities and civilization, the expert stressed. 
Positive momentum
Despite differences over the boundary issue, China and India have in recent months continued efforts to stabilize relations. In December 2024, China and India's representatives for boundary affairs reached a six-point consensus during talks.
Last week, the Nathu La Pass, which was closed for six years, officially resumed operations, signaling a new phase of mutually beneficial cooperation and development in cross-border trade.
During a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on July 22 in Manila, the Philippines, Wang said China and India should consolidate the positive momentum in bilateral relations, and strengthen coordination and cooperation in international and regional affairs, while Jaishankar said India's positions on issues concerning Taiwan and Xizang have not changed, and that India respects China's sovereignty, Xinhua reported. 
In the past two years, leaders of China and India have met in Kazan, Russia, and Tianjin, China, and agreed that China and India are partners rather than rivals, and that their development should be viewed as opportunities rather than threats, Wang said. 
"India's latest move is essentially an attempt to reinforce its claims over disputed territory and counter China's sovereignty position, a move that amounts to self-deception. Unilateral name changes cannot alter the historical and legal facts surrounding the Zangnan region, nor can they shake China's resolve to safeguard its territorial sovereignty," Guo Xuetang said. 
The only way to resolve the China-India boundary issue is through equal negotiations and a fair settlement based on historical and legal principles, while unilateral actions that create tensions or change the status quo will only harm mutual trust and border stability, Guo said. 
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